Summary
Republican messaging opposing the Biden tax compliance proposal proved potent and effective, though misleading. Senator Ron Wyden's message, which explained both the problem and Democratic solutions, successfully countered Republican arguments. Most other tested messages failed to effectively rebut opposition messaging.
Background
The Biden administration proposed requiring banks and financial institutions to report annual deposits and withdrawals for certain accounts to the IRS to improve tax compliance. This initiative faced intense Republican opposition and banking lobby resistance, accompanied by numerous mischaracterizations and misinformation.
Audience Understanding Survey
On October 26, researchers conducted an Audience Understanding Survey examining supporter and opponent perspectives on this issue, including their values, motivations, and personal descriptions of their positions.
Supporters emphasized "fairness" and "catching cheaters," with some recognizing the measure would primarily affect wealthy individuals. Opponents overwhelmingly characterized it as an "invasion of privacy." Undecided voters either lacked sufficient information or expressed genuine conflict, noting concerns about "government invading privacy but...people cheating."
Supporters applied values including "fairness," "obeying laws," and "honesty" when considering the proposal. Researchers drafted messages designed to increase the importance of certain values or provide information supporting greater understanding and backing.
Rapid Message Test
On October 28, researchers conducted a Rapid Message Test measuring message effects on issue opinions within a misinformation context. Respondents were assigned to either a placebo group or one of seven message groups. Non-placebo participants first saw an opposition message from Mitch McConnell, based on his USA Today opinion piece, emphasizing government surveillance concerns.
Researchers tested various messages: two providing factual information, one using Senator Ron Wyden's language, one emphasizing patriotism and duty, two focusing on fairness, and a placebo group receiving the McConnell message followed by a car dealer advertisement.
Findings
Baseline support reached 35% while opposition stood at 47%, with many voters undecided.
McConnell's message proved potent, increasing opposition by a statistically significant 9 points. This misleading message effectively tapped into genuine fears about government overreach and surveillance.
Most tested messages failed countering this effect,respondents remained inclined toward opposition after encountering both the McConnell message and supporting messages.
The Wyden message most effectively countered McConnell's argument, increasing overall support and preventing opposition increases. Support among those seeing both Wyden and McConnell messages was 5 points higher than the placebo group, with opposition remaining essentially flat.
Building majority support proved challenging against Republican misinformation campaigns, though Wyden's Senate Finance Committee language demonstrated effectiveness at countering opposition arguments.
Appendix: Messages and Outcome Questions
Opposition Message (Mitch McConnell):
"Democrats' latest gambit is a plot to give the IRS sweeping new authority to snoop on Americans' personal finances, providing federal agents with data on every transaction over $600. This unprecedented expansion of government surveillance should leave everyone alarmed and outraged."
Military/Patriotism/Duty Message:
A soldier expressing gratitude for those paying taxes and supporting national protection, supporting the plan to catch tax cheaters given existing IRS income reporting requirements.
Fairness Message:
Expressing frustration with tax cheaters and freeloaders, supporting government verification of tax compliance through annual bank reporting.
Wyden Message:
"The total amount of taxes evaded each year may be as high as $1 trillion. Cheating by those at the top is one of the major causes of that tax gap...Wealthy tax cheats are ripping off the American people...Democrats want to fix this broken approach and crack down on the cheating at the top."
Information Only Message:
Describing the proposal's mechanics: increased IRS monitoring of high-value bank accounts, annual bank reports on accounts with $10,000+ in deposits/withdrawals (excluding paychecks and government benefits), and estimates of $460 billion collected over ten years.
Treasury Message:
Explaining that third-party information improves income reporting accuracy, noting high-income taxpayers disproportionately earn from opaque sources where IRS verification struggles, resulting in up to 55% non-compliance on less-visible income streams.
Representation Without Taxation Message:
Highlighting that non-tax-paying individuals still vote and support candidates creating tax loopholes, characterizing this as "representation without taxation" and supporting government monitoring of wealthy individuals' bank accounts.
Outcome Question:
"The federal government is considering a proposal that would increase IRS monitoring of bank accounts in order to reduce tax evasion. Banks would provide annual reports on accounts with at least $10,000 in deposits or withdrawals, not counting deposits from paychecks or government benefits. The proposal is estimated to allow the government to collect an additional $460 billion over the next decade through increased compliance. Do you support or oppose this proposal?"
Answer Options:
- Strongly support
- Somewhat support
- Neither support nor oppose
- Somewhat oppose
- Strongly oppose
Experiment Details:
- Audience: All U.S. adults, balanced by age, race, and gender
- Sample size: 1,600 (raw and weighted)
- Dates in field: October 27–28, 2021
- Weighting factors: age, race, gender, education, and party