Summary
None of the tested messages effectively changed people's minds about inflation's root cause. Two messages triggered backlash, increasing blame on the government. The research recommends exercising caution with inflation messaging.
This research was conducted in partnership with Strategic Victory Fund.
Background
Economists attribute recent price increases to multiple factors including "increased consumer demand, international supply chain issues, labor shortages, and many other factors." However, the public largely blames the Biden administration.
The research aimed to understand diverse public perspectives on inflation and develop messages that could reshape opinions.
Audience Understanding Survey
On November 8th, researchers surveyed 795 people asking which factor they believed most responsible for price increases:
- Global supply chain issues
- Consumers increasing spending as COVID restrictions lifted
- Companies raising prices for profit
- Federal government policies, including COVID relief payments
Respondents grouped by answer showed distinct language patterns. Those blaming government used words like "stressful" and "horrible." Supply chain blame groups called it "frustrating" but "understandable" and "temporary." Consumer spending blame groups said "not fair" and "annoying." Profit-blame groups used "greedy," "gouging," and "corrupt."
Rapid Message Test
Researchers drafted eight messages based on values from the survey and public rhetoric. The test recruited 1,889 respondents randomly assigned to one message or placebo control, then asked about agreement with: "Rising prices recently are mostly due to the Biden administration's policies."
Results
No message significantly increased disagreement that Biden policies caused price rises. The "Signing bonus" message caused significant backlash, while "Price gouging" nearly did,both increased agreement with the statement.
These messages proved especially ineffective with Democrats; every message backfired among 2020 Biden voters.
The finding aligns with the principle that "the party in power owns the economy."
Rather than recommending action, researchers offer a cautionary finding. They remain open to testing more effective messages and welcome inquiries about expanding research.
Appendix: Messages Tested
Price gouging: Personal account criticizing grocery stores for markup tactics on everyday items.
Greed: Discussion of large companies' pandemic profits, layoffs, and current price increases driven by shareholder wealth accumulation.
Signing bonus: Anecdotal narrative about economic mixed signals, job market improvements, supply disruptions, and optimism about normalization.
Value of hard work: Parent reflecting on children's employment, noting competitive $15/hour wage offerings signaling economic recovery.
Family restaurant: Story about family-run restaurant raising prices minimally during pandemic to preserve jobs, requesting customer patience.
Supply chain facts: Explanation of shipping capacity gaps from pandemic, current supply-demand mismatch, and Biden administration port expansion efforts.
Fed executive: Quote from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco president on inflation monitoring and policy readiness.
Biden: Presidential statement acknowledging economic concerns, supply bottlenecks, and legislative/policy solutions for job growth and price relief.
Experiment Details
- Audience: All adults, balanced by age, race, gender
- Geography: United States
- Sample: 1,889 respondents
- Field dates: November 10–11, 2021
- Weighting: Age, race, gender, education, party