The Economy
Josh Berezin, Lead Strategist
Summary: Each of four wide-ranging messages failed to improve approval ratings of Biden on the economy.
This research was conducted in partnership with Strategic Victory Fund.
Background
Previous testing showed that none of the eight messages tested in November were effective at changing people's opinions about who to blame for rising prices.
Since that past test, the infrastructure bill was signed into law and the Build Back Better bill advanced in Congress, though public polling hasn't shown dramatic shifts in people's perceptions of the economy.
Another round of research on the economy was conducted, using messages and research encountered in the real world as inspiration. Several of the messages make reference to recent legislation or other events that could affect people's perceptions of the economy.
Top Findings
People's opinions about the economy proved hard to move. None of the messages significantly increased approval rates of how Biden has handled the economy. While some messages caused backlash effects among liberals, the message that identified big corporations as a villain was persuasive among young people, though it backfired among older people.
Audience Understanding Survey
On December 6th, an Audience Understanding Survey was conducted, asking 784 people: "Do you approve or disapprove of how President Biden is handling the economy?"
Overall approval was even with disapproval, but greater intensity was behind disapproval.
Attitudes about Biden's performance on the economy were very similar to attitudes about Biden's presidency generally. This presents challenges for interpretation, since responses may not reflect people's experiences of the economy as much as their partisanship or overall presidential approval.
Responses to open-ended questions often referred to the economy, but seemed driven by overall impressions of Biden's presidency. One strong disapprover stated concerns about inflation and mandates, while one strong approver referenced pandemic response and Build Back Better. Each included economy references but reflected general impressions as well.
Rapid Message Test
A crowdsourced approach generated messages, taking ideas from research and encountered messages. These messages were tested only for their effect on Biden economy approval at a single point in time; they might have effects on other attitudes or worked better previously.
The messages tested took varied approaches. "Made-up" contrasted Republicans' focus on 2020 elections with Democrats' work on real issues. "Unpredictable" lifted up hardworking people's contributions during challenging times and argued government should do more to support them. "Big corporations" set corporations as a villain and credited Biden with cracking down on profiteering. "Billionaires" argued for taxing the rich to bring costs down.
1,044 respondents were recruited and randomly assigned to one of four messages or a placebo, then asked: "Do you approve or disapprove of how President Biden is handling the economy?"
Results
On average, none of the messages was effective at changing opinions of Biden's economic performance.
None of the messages significantly affected approval of Biden's economic performance.
Though there weren't topline effects, subgroup effects existed. "Big corporations" increased approval among young people while reducing it among older people, along with two other messages.
Effects varied somewhat by age.
Two messages,"Made-up" and "Billionaires",decreased approval among people identifying as liberal. Similar effects weren't seen among Democrats or 2020 Biden voters, raising possibility this is noise rather than actual opinion change.
Some messages reduced approval among liberals.
No particularly effective message was found for increasing approval of Biden's economic performance, similar to the previous test. The organization remains open to trying new ideas for changing minds on the economy's state.
Appendix
Messages
Made-up
"While Republican legislatures are trying to distract and divide us over made-up concerns about the last election, Biden and Democrats are focusing on the issues that really matter: preventing COVID lockdowns, making healthcare and childcare more affordable, and increasing wages across the board. These are the efforts that will create a more balanced economy and help Americans thrive."
Unpredictable
"The past year has shown us that life is unpredictable. Through everything that's happened, we have continued to work hard, provide for our families, and contribute to our communities. We're producing the things this country needs and providing the services that keep our communities running.
Hardworking Americans deserve gratitude for the sacrifices they've made to keep our country afloat for the past two years.
Now we need the government to step up and provide what people need to create good, permanent jobs that provide security and stability for our families, with wages that keep up with rising costs and allow us to make ends meet. We're doing our part by working hard. We need an economy where that hard work is respected and pays."
Big corporations
"Prices have gone up, but big corporations don't mind, they make more money when prices are high!
That's why Biden is getting tough with big corporations who are creating false scarcity and driving up costs on Americans. If they're going to leave shipping containers sitting at the port for weeks instead of loading them onto trucks, they're going to get a fine. Let's hope they can take a hint."
Billionaires
"Billionaires can afford to go to space and buy superyachts while the rest of us are getting hit hard at the gas pump and grocery store? That's not right.
President Biden's Build Back Better plan, now before Congress, will lower costs that have been too high for years, health care, child care, elder care, rent, prescriptions, college.
And while corporate giants and billionaires get richer from the pandemic, they're paying less and less of their fair share in taxes to help the rest of us to recover. Also not right.
That's why Build Back Better will make the wealthy and corporate giants pay their fair share to help lower your cost of living.
What we really can't afford? For Congress to wait any longer."
Key Experiment Details
- Audience: All adults, balanced on age, race, and gender
- Geography: the United States
- Sample size (raw / weighted): 1,044 / 1,044
- Date in field: Wednesday, December 08, 2021
- Weighting factors: age, race, gender, education, and party